Anne and I are visiting an old friend in Sarasota, Florida after celebrating Anne’s birthday with family in Brooklyn.
No posting of my own. But the non-partisan Government Budget Office released their report today that TrumpCare would eliminate health care coverage to 24 million people.
That is equal to 8 Brooklyns.
About 24 million more people would be uninsured under the Republican plan to replace Obamacare, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, creating a daunting political impediment for a proposal that would reduce the deficit by more than $300 billion.
The coverage estimate is a setback for President Donald Trump, who promised that “insurance for everybody” would replace Obamacare, which used government subsidies and an expansion of Medicaid to bring coverage to 20 million people. But Republicans trying to pass the legislation without Democratic support argued that any reduction in the rolls of the insured isn’t as important as what they say will be cheaper coverage.
The CBO, the official scorekeeper of the budgetary effects of proposed legislation, said the GOP proposal would reduce the deficit by $337 billion over 10 years. Trump touted the plan Monday before the CBO score was released.
The coverage losses would begin even before many parts of the Republican plan go into effect. CBO estimates that next year about 14 million fewer people would have insurance, largely because they’d no longer choose to buy it. The losses in coverage after 2018 mainly come from Medicaid, CBO said. By 2026, about 52 million people would be without health insurance. If the Affordable Care Act instead continued, 28 million would be uninsured.
Insurance premiums will be 15 percent to 20 percent higher over the next couple of years, before the GOP replacement plan goes fully into effect. They’d fall after, thanks to more young people signing up and a provision in the bill that lets insurers offer fewer benefits, CBO says. In a decade, premiums are estimated to be 10 percent lower than they would have been under Obamacare.
House Speaker Paul Ryan is trying to skirt opposition from the conservative wing of the party, which has derided the measure as “Obamacare Lite,” and moderates facing angry constituents who face losing care. Several key Republican senators have said they can’t vote for the bill in its current form. Ryan has tried to steel party members against the office’s estimate.
“I’ve been telling our members, just get ready, this is always what happens with CBO,” Ryan told radio host Hugh Hewitt on Friday. “You’re never going to win a coverage beauty contest when it’s free market versus government mandates.”