Judge Belz and the injunction.

It is hard for a public employee to take good news in Illinois without checking on Snopes to see if isn’t a hoax.

District Judge John Belz issued a temporary restraining order and and an injunction, preventing the implementation of pension theft as scheduled on July 1.

My good friend John Dillon is not so ready to celebrate. And his arguments are – as they always are – sound. They can be summed up as, “Don’t pop the champaign champagne quite yet.”

I’m more of a glass-half-full kind of guy. When I got the text message yesterday afternoon seconds after Judge Belz issued the TRO, I immediately posted the news on this blog, and poured myself a celebratory drink.

Then I started making half a dozen calls to retired friends with the same question: “So. What do you think?”

The argument  that our lawyers made to Judge Belz is the same constitutional and contractual arguments that they will make to the courts when the cases are heard.

And then they added this: It is likely that the ultimate ruling by the courts will be that the pension theft bill will be ruled to be in conflict with the pension protection provision of the Illinois Constitution. Enacting it on July 1 will cause irreparable harm.

Judge Belz agreed.

Chief pension thief, State Representative Elaine Nekritz, said yesterday that  she expected the ruling by Judge Belz, but expects the courts to ultimately rule that the thievery is legal.

I doubt she is right.

However, I think that Cullerton, Madigan and Squeezy knew all along that this attempt at grand larceny would go down to defeat.

Cullerton certainly knew. He said as much.

He said the first SB1 was unconstitutional. He said the final bill was less unconstitutional, even though he voted for it. But less unconstitutional is still unconstitutional. And Cullerton knows that.

In fact, it was more unconstitutional, if there is such as thing. They threw everything into this bill but the proverbial kitchen sink to make it unconstitutional.

If Cullerton knew, then Madigan knew. And if Cullerton and Madigan knew, than even Squeezy knew.

They also know what you and I know: That the state’s financial mess cannot be solved without increasing revenue.

And by revenue, I mean taxes. And by taxes, I don’t mean higher taxes on Chicago’s working class homeowners and working family incomes. I mean taxes on corporations and the rich who want to make their money in Illinois.

And they make plenty of it.

The Democrats passed this unconstitutional bill, the judge put a TRO on it, and got the issue off the table for the rest of the year.

For the time being, everybody’s pensions are safe.

As an election issue, Madigan/Cullerton/Squeey can say, “We made a good faith effort to do pension reform, but there’s separation of powers.”

I chalk this up as a win. And a sign of how the courts will ultimately rule.

You know who loses?

Rahm loses.

Again.

Belz has sent the message to the legislature, Governor and mayors that the courts will not likely approve pension theft.

His attempt to screw the City’s public employees out of their pensions is dead in this session of the legislature. And the bill he did get passed earlier is rumored to be not getting Squeezy’s signature.

Plus it saddles him among city voters with the label of a Mayor who wants to raise property taxes. Another mark against him in what is now widely seen as his sinking re-election chances.

The pension cutting bill that County Board President Toni Preckwinkle bargained with sell-out SEIU 73 leadership is unlikely to get legislative approval now either.

I’m hoping those union leaders in the state’s We Are One coalition of public employee unions learned something too. They were willing to bargain away some of our COLA for a chance to sit at the table and out of fear of what the courts would do.

Many of us thought that SB2404 was a bad idea at the time, and said so. And were attacked as naysayers.

Judge Belz certainly handed CTU President Karen Lewis a win. It strengthens her hand in protecting Chicago teachers pensions.

However Dillon is right. It’s too early to claim final victory.

I think we will ultimately prevail, but it’s no slam dunk.

And if (when) the courts ultimately rule in our favor, then what?

Will  they come back and try to cut benefits again?

Then we go back to court and we keep playing this stupid game.

Will they try and change the Illinois Constitution’s pension protection provision?

They tried that once before and failed.

Or will they do the right thing and address revenue?

On a personal level – and retiree’s pensions are a most personal of personal issues – all this ignores the pain and fear that retirees across the state must endure while politicians, judges, lawyers and lobbyist play this terrible game.

I can hear that fear in the desperate phrasing of the comments I receive on almost a daily basis.

“When will they decide?” “Will I get my COLA this year?” “What do you think will happen?”