Three Card Monte, Nekritz style.

Three-card Monte, also known as the Three-card marney, Three-card trick, Three-Way, Three-card shuffle, Menage-a-card, Triplets, Follow the lady, Les Trois Perdants (French for Three Losers), le Bonneteau, Find the lady, Bola bola or Follow the Bee is a confidence game in which the victim, or mark, is tricked into betting a sum of money, on the assumption that they can find the money card among three face-down playing cards. It is the same as the shell game except that cards are used instead of “shells”.

Pension bomber, Representative Elaine Nekritz, has responded to Ralph Martire’s numbers in the debate about state revenues. Martire of the Center for Tax and Budget Accountability has argued that what Illinois faces is a revenue problem, not a pension problem.

Nektritz responds:

Thanks so much for your response.  I am familiar with Mr. Martire’s proposal.

 The reality is his proposal would require a payment of almost $9 billion into the pension systems next year. The current year payment is “only” $5.7 billion. We could decimate General State Aid for schools by about 75% in order to pay for it, or raise the income tax another 1%. I don’t believe either of those are good for Illinois.

Mr. Martire omits some very important points in his article. The first is that his payment amount does not include the going forward cost of the pensions…the cost that actually funds current teachers versus the cost of those already retired. Second, his proposal only truly works if the State is somehow magically able to turn the pension debt into bonded debt. The markets would never accept $85 billion worth of bonds from Illinois. Thus, his proposal ignores actuarial science, something I believe the Teachers unions and the Teachers Retirement System do not, in any way shape or form, support. I have great respect for Mr. Martire and I wish there was a painless way out of this mess but I do not believe Mr. Martire has a solution that is tenable.

Nekritz’s response has caused some to believe her and bet on one of her three cards: That pension costs are higher than what Martire claims. That state aid would be reduced by 75% “in order to pay for it,” or that we raise the income tax by 1%.

But those are shell choices.

Tim Furman did what makes the most sense. He called Amanda Kass at the Center for Tax and Budget Accountability and asked for feedback.

Which Amanda gave.

The point is that Nekrtiz gives short shrift to the revenue issue and avoids the case for restructuring the debt.

Nothing will dissuade her from her desire to cut promised pensions as the only solution.

That shouldn’t con anybody.